Arthur Hayes Predicts March Crypto Peak

📈 Crypto Peaks and Corrections

Dollar Liquidity and Crypto: Arthur Hayes predicts crypto markets will peak in mid-March 2025 before dropping sharply. This is driven by a $612 billion money influx from changes in the Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo Facility (RRP, a short-term money supply tool) and U.S. Treasury spending to manage debt limits.

Fed and Treasury Impact: The Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT, reducing its balance sheet) will drain $180 billion, but falling RRP balances and Treasury spending from its General Account (TGA, the government’s bank account) will inject $959 billion combined. This boosts short-term market growth.

Crypto Market Strategy: Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom Fund, suggests caution after March’s peak as risks grow with slowing money flow. Still, Maelstrom will invest in Decentralized Science (DeSci) tokens like $BIO and $VITA, seeing high growth potential. Read More.

️ On today's Top Picks:

  1. 🎗️ Vitalik Buterin liquidates memecoins for charity.
  2. 🚀 ZKsync launches Ignite Season 1 from Jan 6th to Mar 31st.
  3. 🪂 Solv to launch TGE & airdrop claim on January 17th.
  4. ✨ $MARA lends 7,377 Bitcoin to third parties to generate yield.

Read time: ⏰ 6 minutes


Crypto News


• ⭐️ Arthur Hayes predicts crypto market will peak in mid-March and then experience a severe correction.

• ⭐️ Ethereum Co-founder Vitalik Buterin liquidates ~$2.5M worth of memecoins to fund his Kanro charity.

Echo alleges hostility from venture funds either trying to restrict founders from selling cheaper on Echo or trying to stop founders from doing community sales at all.

Solana Seeker, the second phone developed by Solana Mobile, to launch in mid-2025; Seeker has received ~145K pre-orders.

MicroStrategy buys an additional 1,070 Bitcoin $BTC for ~$101M at ~$94,004 per BTC; now holds 447,470 BTC worth ~$45B.

Digital Assets see $585M of inflows so far in 2025; 2024 saw a record $44.2B of inflows, four times higher than 2021 (last record year).

Winklevoss-led Gemini Trust Co to pay $5M to settle US CFTC charges over alleged misleading statements; Gemini does not admit or deny the allegations.

MoonPay, BitStaete, FinTech ZBD, & HiddenRoad secure MiCA licenses from Netherlands AFM; license allows companies to operate across the EU.

GSR secures approval from UK FCA as a registered crypto asset business; first crypto liquidity provider to secure regulatory approvals from UK FCA & Singapore MAS.

d/acc: one year later by Vitalik Buterin.

Alpha


Berachain announces Boyco dapps & asset issuers; Boyco is a pre-launch liquidity platform designed to help Berachain’s application layer before Mainnet.

Story posts "Next week will be fun" on X; teases AI, Yap, & big IP updates.

• ⭐️ ZKsync launches ZKsync Ignite Season 1 from January 6th to March 31st; to distribute up to 100M $ZK to DeFi users.

ink launches DeFi Training Grounds - Week 3 quest on Guild; complete the tasks for a chance to win 1 ETH.

Babylon to launch Phase-2 testnet (bbn-test-5) on January 8th; Phase-1 testnet stakers to have opportunity to register into Phase-2 testnet.

StakeStone adds support for Bitcoin deposits to its Berachain Vault; deposit $SBTC, $WBTC, and/or $cbBTC to earn rewards & points.

Reddio posts "The countdown is on... something big is about to drop" on X; Mainnet to potentially launch soon.

Newton extends Crystal of Unknown Origin NFT mint until January 10th; Newton is a ZK L2 by Magic Labs.

Resolv launches the Grand Epoch; features +25% base points boost for all participants, new integrations, & more.

Blockscout launches 2x Merits on SwapScout; swap or bridge on SwapScout to earn double the amount of Merits.

Upcoming Events In January by Aram Z.

Airdrops


• ⭐️ Solv takes snapshot of season 1 points; to launch $SOLV airdrop checker soon; to launch TGE & airdrop claim on January 17th.

Binance launches $SOLV Megadrop; lock BNB or complete Web3 Quests to participate.

Dolomite unveils $DOLO; to launch TGE & airdrop soon after Berachain launch; 20% of token supply allocated for airdrops.

Morph launches 100K Morph Points airdrop; S1 Genesis Jungle participants eligible.

Enjoy ends $ENJOY SZN 6; to launch airdrop claim this week; launches Airdrop 2 SZN 7 through February 17th.

ICYMI Weekly Airdrop Recap by Earndrop.

ICYMI Sahara Airdrop Strategy by Earndrop.

Finance News


Nvidia $NVDA briefly surpassed Apple $AAPL to become the largest company by market cap; Apple has since reclaimed the top spot.

Microsoft $MSFT to invest $80B in FY 2025 to expand AI datacenter capabilities; more than half of total investment will be in the US.

• ⭐️ MARA Holdings $MARA lends 7,377 Bitcoin to third parties to generate yield; the BTC represents ~16% of it total reserves.

Core Scientific sold 27% of mined Bitcoin in December for $7.7M; may resume a partial hodl strategy after two years of full liquidation.

Metaplanet to increase Bitcoin holdings to 10K; currently holds 1,762 BTC; to use loans, equity, & convertible bonds to increase holdings.

Indonesia joins BRICS economic alliance as full member; becomes 10th member to join BRICS.

Security and Exploits


Ethereum Developers targeted with malicious npm packages impersonating Hardhat tools to steal private keys & mnemonics.

Discord Users targeted with fake game sites spreading info-stealer malware to steal browser-stored credentials, crypto wallets, & more.

US Treasury sanctions Integrity Technology Group, a China-based cybersecurity firm, for cyberattacks against the US.

Charter Communications, Consolidated Communications, & Windstream added to list of telecommunications firms hacked by Salt Typhoon

2024 Q4 MistTrack Stolen Funds Analysis by SlowMist.

Token Unlocks


• Neon $NEON / ~$21M / JAN 07th
• EigenLayer $EIGEN / ~$5M / JAN 07th
• Ethena $ENA / ~$16M / JAN 08th
• Movement $MOVE / ~$56M / JAN 09th
• Optimism $OP / $9M / JAN 09th
Sourced from Tokenomist


Funding


AlloyX raises $10M in Pre-Series A funding.

JAN3 raises $5M in Seed funding led by Fulgur Ventures.

ZKcandy raises $4M in Seed funding.

. . .

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That’s it for today’s edition! See you soon.

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